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are on the rise again, just as health experts had feared, and cases are climbing in practically every state, despite assurances from President Donald Trump over the weekend that we're rounding the turn, we're doing great. With Election Day just over a week away, average deaths per day across the country are up 10% over the past two weeks, from 721 to nearly 794 as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Newly confirmed infections per day are rising in 47 states, and deaths are up in 34. Health experts had warned that it was only a matter of time before deaths turned upward, given the record breaking surge in cases engulfing the country. Deaths are a lagging indicator that is, it generally takes a few weeks for people to sicken and die from the coronavirus. Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota expert on infectious diseases who warned over the summer of a fall surge, said whats happening now is a confluence of three factors: pandemic fatigue" among people who are weary of hunkering down and are venturing out more; pandemic anger among those are dont believe the scourge is a real threat; and cold weather, which is forcing more Americans indoors, where the virus can spread more easily.
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While much attention has been given to how financial repression, in the form of exceptionally low interest rates paid to savers, has reduced household incomes and thus consumption, this has accounted for only a fraction of the decline in the share of income to GDP over the past decade. Far more important has been the structural shift of workers from rural to urban activities and within the urban areas. As more workers move out of agriculture and into industrycertainly a good thinglabours share of national income falls. This is because labours share of income in agriculture is nearly 90%, but in industry it is only 50%. So while workers enjoy higher earnings and productivity increases when they move from rural to urban activities, the percentage of income that goes directly to workers declines. But even as household incomes expand, rising savings rates mean that consumption has not kept pace. This stems in part from precautionary savings by households that do not have total confidence in the newly created pension schemes and by the 200 million migrant workers who lack formal residency rights hukou and are therefore reluctant to spend as freely as established residents. Things will change, but it will take time. The other major factor influencing the lower share of household consumption in China is that income from investments and government transfers accounts for a much smaller share of disposable income than in other countries. In a socialist economy with all land and major assets owned by the state, the returns from these assets accrue largely to the state and not to private households. Under these conditions, the state needs to provide a much larger share of public social expenditures to supplement household consumption.